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Dunnar

Global Warming

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I have already said that I am skeptical and laid out some of the reasons why in previous posts.  Before you get your panties in a wad, I never said its not happening, just that I am skeptical.

 

Then stuff like this comes out:

NASA, NOAA Analyses Reveal Record-Shattering Global Warm Temperatures in 2015

http://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-record-shattering-global-warm-temperatures-in-2015

16-008.jpeg?itok=FmRIGLj6

 

 

 

The 2015 temperatures continue a long-term warming trend, according to analyses by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York (GISTEMP). NOAA scientists concur with the finding that 2015 was the warmest year on record based on separate, independent analyses of the data. Because weather station locations and measurements change over time, there is some uncertainty in the individual values in the GISTEMP index. Taking this into account, NASA analysis estimates 2015 was the warmest year with 94 percent certainty. 

 

So I do what I usually do and look at where I live.  Cleveland, OH.  According to this chart, 2015 in Cleveland Ohio was 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than ... not sure.  I read and reread the article and I couldn't see what that 1.8 represented.  I would think normal temperature or an average normal temperature over a period of time.

 

If you ask anyone in Cleveland about 2015 weather, they will tell you one word ... cold.  Winter was absolutely brutal.  Summer never got really warm.  Fall was nice, but we paid our dues for it.

 

http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2015/03/where-does-this-winter-coldsnow-rank.html

 

 

 The average temperature from January 1 to February 28th was the 6th coldest EVER, coldest since 1977-78, 4th coldest in the last 100 years, 3rd coldest in the last 50 years

 

So we start out historically cold.  You may think summer was hot.  No.

 

http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2015/09/fall_begins_wednesday_for_what.html

 

But, those who like cooler weather haven't had to wait until autumn to begin this year. Temperatures are running below 50-year averages in Cleveland, and nearly 6 degrees below the unusually hot year of 2012.

The average high of 60.61 degrees for the year to date ranks 41st out of the last 50 years, a Northeast Ohio Media Group analysis of National Weather Service records found.

 

So through September, we were 41th coldest out of the last 50.

18810689-mmmain.png

 

Fall was warmer than normal and I can not find any local data to point to any averages.  But even warmer temperatures would bring that number down because warm might be 45 degrees.  And if you compare it to other years, or even a cumulative average of years, it still doesn't explain how last year in Cleveland can be warmer than any average.

 

So back to NASA and Global Warming.  I cannot understand how the 2 pieces of data jive.  The only logical conclusion I can come to is the process that NASA uses to collect temperature data is flawed.  And if you think they just use raw temperature readings, you would be wrong.  It even says so in their article.

 

 

 

NASA’s analyses incorporate surface temperature measurements from 6,300 weather stations, ship- and buoy-based observations of sea surface temperatures, and temperature measurements from Antarctic research stations. These raw measurements are analyzed using an algorithm that considers the varied spacing of temperature stations around the globe and urban heating effects that could skew the conclusions if left unaccounted for. The result of these calculations is an estimate of the global average temperature difference from a baseline period of 1951 to 1980.

 

Its stuff like this that makes me very skeptical.  Not only can I question the methods for calculating temperature data, but I can question the results.  Then to take it a step further and pin this all on human activity ...  I just don't get how you can make that leap.

 

What am I missing?

Lasraik likes this

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I don't profess to have any insight or strong views in this area. But I do recall hearing to factors that could have an impact on what you posit.

 

1. Global warming doesn't mean the earth getting globally warmer. It's a misnomer. The underlying problem is that humanity is adversely affecting the climate. A far better name for the issue is 'climate-change'. Some places get warmer. Some places get colder. Some places get wetter and some places get drier.

 

2. The Earths climate naturally changes dramatically periodically. It is very difficult to know whether any changes we experience now are actually down to human intervention or natural occurrences. Ice ages tend to occur every 100,000 and IIRC we are well overdue the next.

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1. Global warming doesn't mean the earth getting globally warmer. It's a misnomer. The underlying problem is that humanity is adversely affecting the climate. A far better name for the issue is 'climate-change'. Some places get warmer. Some places get colder. Some places get wetter and some places get drier.

I agree with that sentiment 1000%.  However, the NASA photo is showing warmth over the entire globe, save for a few areas.  And their article says 

 

 

Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years, with 15 of the 16 warmest years on record occurring since 2001

so while it has changed from global warming to climate change, the article is still talking about warming.

 

 

 

2. The Earths climate naturally changes dramatically periodically. It is very difficult to know whether any changes we experience now are actually down to human intervention or natural occurrences. Ice ages tend to occur every 100,000 and IIRC we are well overdue the next.

You and I agree.  How can these changes be pinpointed to mans influence on a gas that makes up less than 4/100 of our atmosphere?

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Whatever it is that you're missing I'm missing, too.  I just don't know enough about it to decide whether it's legit or not.  I do believe that the damage we do with gasses (smog) has to do damage 

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Over here we have barely had a winter this year.  However, should climate-change really get going we are going to lose the Gulf Stream which keeps the UK warmer than it's position on the earth would indicate, and then we are going to freeze.  It's not just everything getting hotter, it's how the change in the 'global' temperature will affect weather patterns.  Think how you can have days with the sun out but biting cold because of the wind.  What you are probably going to see is more extreme weather rather than a uniform heating.

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